Reform in time or face Revolution. Peter Turchin and Clionomics and comment on this.

Wealth inequality's scientific causes, and how to fix them | Peter Turchin interview https://youtu.be/sH7wqxjUi8Y

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My comment:


In 1943 the English Conservative politician Quintin Hogg said, on behalf of the elites: "Either we give them reform, or they give us revolution." 


As the old maxim goes: "Reform in time or face revolution," Then, now, and always. Elsewhere Turchin gives an average 15% chance of successful reform to avoid this revolution, or at least postpone it (e.g. for 50 or so years in the case of Russia in the 1860s).


Linked to this are long wave  economic cycles of 40-60 years, Kondratiev waves or cycles. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave.  A typical wave is deemed to be 56 years. 1861: Emancipation of Russian serfs. 1917: failure to reform sufficiently - revolution.

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